Arsenal 0 - Newcastle 1 match report: frustrating - The Short Fuse

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The Gunners cannot seem to catch a break.

Arsenal fell 1-0 to Newcastle in a match that on another day, probably ends in a draw or maybe even an Arsenal win. Both sides had one good chance in the match. Newcastle took theirs, Arsenal didn’t. If you played this exact same match 10 times, it ends in a draw 8 of those 10 times, with each side winning once. It’s incredibly annoying and frustrating that we’re living in the 10% world where Newcastle claim all three points.

It wasn’t a poor performance from Arsenal nor was it a particularly good one. Newcastle are a solid team whose results have lagged behind their quality and are quite good at St. James’ Park. Their performances have been middling for the most part this season, but that particular Newcastle side weren’t on the pitch today. Instead, the Newcastle side that were unbeaten in 11-straight matches before losing at home to Brighton recently showed up. They played well against Arsenal today, were well-organized, and held their shape.

Everywhere that tracks advanced stats has the match just about even on xG with Arsenal slightly ahead on most of the attacking metrics. The Gunners struggled to turn possession into good chances, although Mikel Merino, Leandro Trossard, and Declan Rice all should have done better with chances they had. Rice in particular — he was wide open at the back post, not under much pressure, and headed wide.

It’s a bit reductive to boil a match down to just two chances but that was the chance for Arsenal. Gordan and Isak combined to score Newcastle’s big chance. Declan Rice couldn’t head home Bukayo Saka’s cross.

Again, it wasn’t a poor performance nor was it a great one. Arsenal just aren’t the same team without Martin Ødegaard and expecting the performances and results not to falter without him in the lineup is foolish. He’s the primary creative player in the attack, drives possession in the final third, and spearheads the Arsenal press. And it’s not like Arsenal can just go out and find another player to replicate what Ødegaard brings, either. Those type of players are few and far between, and they aren’t content to sit on the bench as a reserve.

If Arsenal were just missing Martin Ødegaard, they might have been able to cope, too. But their other primary progressive passer, Thomas Partey, has to be used as a make-shift right back because Ben White isn’t fit enough to be more than a late substitute and Riccardo Calafiori is hurt, which pushes Jurrien Timber, who would otherwise be playing right back in Ben White’s absence, over to the left. Oleksandr Zinchenko, who is also a left back and progressive passer, is coming off injury and apparently not fit enough for a starting role (nor is he in any kind of form). Takehiro Tomiyasu, who would be in the mix if he were fit, hasn’t been healthy in ages.

When players are healthy, Arsenal’s best attacking combination is Martin Ødegaard, Bukayo Saka, and Ben White. Two of those three weren’t on the pitch for most of the game today and haven’t been fully fit and available for weeks. People are underestimating the effect of losing Ben White’s overlapping — it creates space for Bukayo Saka and stretches the defense horizontally, which opens holes for other players, too.

The same can be said down the other wing. How many times today (and against Liverpool) was Gabriel Martinelli on an island? He’s usually better in 1-v-1 situations than he has been, but he also often has support from his fullback overlapping. I’m not sure Jurrien Timber overlapped him once today, although he did make a lovely diagonal run towards a CF position in the first half and was well picked out by David Raya.

Arsenal’s marking on Newcastle’s goal was poor — Gabriel misjudged the flight of the ball and put himself in no man’s land. He doesn’t usually make that bad of a mistake. But the move started when not-a-right-back Thomas Partey headed the ball down and to the middle, straight to Alexander Isak and not-really-a-left-back Jurrien Timber was slow getting out to close down Anthony Gordon. Do Arsenal concede that goal if they’ve got someone other than the third-choice (at best) fullbacks on the left and right side? Maybe not.

Some people seem baffled that the Arsenal defense, which was so resolute last season, is leaking goals. Really? Even with the question mark at left back for most of last season, the other three were consistently on the pitch in their proper positions. They also faced far fewer opposing attacking moves, in large part because Martin Ødegaard is so good defensively at slowing, blunting, and preventing opposing attacks before they can get going.

In first 20 minutes of the match today, Newcastle were passing through the Arsenal midfield with ease, in large part because Leandro Trossard, who was anonymous and poor again today, isn’t MØ without the ball. Then Arsenal adjusted something, probably helped by Newcastle sitting back after going ahead, and the home side weren’t able to progress the ball up the pitch with nearly as much ease. It’s not like the squad and manager aren’t trying to make it work.

At some point, it just becomes too much to handle. You do the best with what you’ve got and that’s that. Mikel Arteta and the players aren’t making excuses, they’re putting their heads down (in a good way) and trying to make it work with what they’ve got. Mikel Arteta’s refrain has been that they have to be better in certain situations, but at some point, perhaps they simply cannot be better. They seem to expect the same level and same results, regardless of what is thrown at them. It’s an admirable mindset, one you have to have as a top-level sports team. But it’s also not exactly a realistic expectation to set for yourself.

Arsenal simply aren’t the same team without their captain on their pitch, multiple players out of position, and having to dip well down the depth chart. The only question mark I have is what’s going on with Jorginho. He provides the ball security and passing that Arsenal seem to lack in the midfield. There is either something we don’t know happening behind the scenes, like an injury, or Mikel Arteta, for whatever reason, doesn’t think he’s the answer that some of us do. But other than that, there really aren’t all that many other combinations to try. That’s just the way it goes.

A frequent criticism of Mikel Arteta is that he’s too slow and too cautious with his substitutions. With 30 minutes left in the match, he brought on Ethan Nwaneri and Gabriel Jesus to try to spark a change. It was the kind of bold, significant, and aggressive change that we’ve been pleading with the manager to make. It didn’t really accomplish much. Gabriel Jesus tried to make stuff happen on the left wing, but he was isolated in much the same way that Gabriel Martinelli was.

Ethan Nwaneri didn’t do much, either. Twice his teammates played balls into space where they were expecting him to make a run and both times he didn’t make the run. Some of that is a lack of familiarity on both Nwaneri and his teammates’ part, but some of that is also Nwaneri’s inexperience. Perhaps that’s why we haven’t seen more of him. He’s a really good player and has the makings of a great one. He’s also 17-years old without many Premier League minutes to his name. He doesn’t have the habits, the automatisms as Mikel Arteta describes it, of a seasoned pro in Arteta’s system.

I don’t think there is much blame apportion for how things have gone this season (other than onto the shoulders of some random, otherwise inconsequential Austrian player for injuring Martin Ødegaard). Nor is that a single point of failure for this squad. Rather, it’s been a cascade of bad injury luck and unfortunate bounces / decisions.

It really just hasn’t gone Arsenal’s way this season. Manchester City and Liverpool manage to find late equalizers against Arsenal. Arsenal can’t find a late equalizer against Newcastle, despite creating the big chance needed to earn a point. The Gunners are several points behind where they might be because of referee decisions that easily could have (and probably should have) came down differently.

Is there more that Arsenal, Mikel Arteta, and the players could have done to mitigate all that bad luck? Maybe. Hindsight is 20-20. It’s easy to suggest tweaks here and there that might have improved the odds of picking up another point or two, but I pretty firmly believe that Arsenal are well beyond the point where things they do or don’t do have a meaningful effect on outcomes. It hasn’t been their season so far.

On the most important level, the almighty Premier League table, that doesn’t really matter. The points are what they are and it is going to take near-perfection from here on in from Arsenal to win the title. They’ll need to go on, basically, a historic run of results and / or get significant help.

Are either of those things likely to happen? Probably not. Could they happen? Absolutely.

This Arsenal side, despite their middling form, are still really good. The underlying numbers say as much, particularly when considered in light of what Arsenal have been missing (and playing a significant portion of the minutes this season at 10 v 11). The competition — Manchester City, Liverpool, and whoever else you want to throw in (but really it’s just those two) — have their flaws and aren’t as good as they’ve been in the past.

But Arsenal have more or less exhausted the wiggle room. They’ve got to start winning Premier League matches and they need to get healthy.